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Paul Green v John McFarlane (Tue 08 Feb 2011)

Match won by John McFarlane. Result: 4-15,6-15,9-15.

Starting level for Paul Green: 1,878, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for John McFarlane: 2,680, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
John McFarlane to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Paul Green.

John McFarlane won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 137% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John McFarlane played 137% better than Paul Green in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John McFarlane actually played at a level of 3,453 and Paul Green at a level of 1,458. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 29% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John McFarlane changes to +24% and Paul Green changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John McFarlane becomes +8.8% and for Paul Green becomes -9.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for John McFarlane is +6.6% and for Paul Green is -7.2%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Paul Green is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John McFarlane: 88%, Paul Green: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John McFarlane: 68%, Paul Green: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Green: 1,786, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for John McFarlane: 2,853, level confidence: 68%.