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Keeley Peacock v Neil Morgan (Wed 04 Jun 2014)

Match won by Keeley Peacock. Result: 13-15,15-13,15-9,15-11.

Starting level for Keeley Peacock: 1,569, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Neil Morgan: 1,854, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Neil Morgan to win as he is currently playing 18% better than Keeley Peacock.

Keeley Peacock won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keeley Peacock played 24% better than Neil Morgan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keeley Peacock actually played at a level of 1,896 and Neil Morgan at a level of 1,534. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keeley Peacock changes to +18% and Neil Morgan changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keeley Peacock becomes +8.5% and for Neil Morgan becomes -8.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Keeley Peacock is +5.5% and for Neil Morgan is -5.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keeley Peacock: 88%, Neil Morgan: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keeley Peacock: 73%, Neil Morgan: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keeley Peacock: 1,653, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Neil Morgan: 1,763, level confidence: 71%.