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Jaques Els v Julian Craxton (Tue 10 Jun 2014)

Match won by Jaques Els. Result: 15-11,10-15,15-12,13-15,15-8.

Starting level for Jaques Els: 2,006, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Julian Craxton: 1,749, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Jaques Els to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Julian Craxton.

Jaques Els won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jaques Els played 10% better than Julian Craxton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jaques Els actually played at a level of 1,968 and Julian Craxton at a level of 1,783. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jaques Els changes to -1.8% and Julian Craxton changes to +1.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jaques Els becomes -1.4% and for Julian Craxton becomes +1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Jaques Els is -0.9% and for Julian Craxton is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jaques Els: 75%, Julian Craxton: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jaques Els: 73%, Julian Craxton: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jaques Els: 1,985, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Julian Craxton: 1,759, level confidence: 84%.