SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Paul Hunt v Rob Carroll (Wed 09 Feb 2011)

Match won by Paul Hunt. Result: 15-8,15-9,15-4.

Starting level for Paul Hunt: 1,983, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rob Carroll: 997, level confidence: 28%.
Paul Hunt to win as he is currently playing 99% better than Rob Carroll.

Paul Hunt won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Hunt played 114% better than Rob Carroll in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Hunt actually played at a level of 2,058 and Rob Carroll at a level of 961. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 2.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Hunt changes to +0.9% and Rob Carroll changes to -2.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Hunt becomes +0.7% and for Rob Carroll becomes -2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Paul Hunt is +0.5% and for Rob Carroll is -2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Hunt: 91%, Rob Carroll: 53%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Hunt: 87%, Rob Carroll: 51%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Hunt: 1,990, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Rob Carroll: 976, level confidence: 51%.