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Peter Hutchins v Dave Relf (Tue 10 Jun 2014)

Match won by Dave Relf. Result: 12-15,8-15,7-15.

Starting level for Peter Hutchins: 591, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Dave Relf: 677, level confidence: 63%.
Dave Relf to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Peter Hutchins.

Dave Relf won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Relf played 67% better than Peter Hutchins in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave Relf actually played at a level of 817 and Peter Hutchins at a level of 490. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Relf changes to +16% and Peter Hutchins changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Relf becomes +9.5% and for Peter Hutchins becomes -10.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Dave Relf is +6.2% and for Peter Hutchins is -6.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Relf: 79%, Peter Hutchins: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Relf: 66%, Peter Hutchins: 61%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Hutchins: 553, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Dave Relf: 718, level confidence: 66%.