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Darren Withey v Chris Lynam (Tue 10 Jun 2014)

Match won by Darren Withey. Result: 15-13,15-13,15-13.

Starting level for Darren Withey: 4,252, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Chris Lynam: 2,948, level confidence: 63%.
Darren Withey to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Chris Lynam.

Darren Withey won all of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Darren Withey played 28% better than Chris Lynam in this match.

As Darren Withey has played below his allowed range at 3,822, his level reduction is 0.9% before damping. On the assumption that Darren Withey would normally have been playing at level 4,080 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Lynam played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.8% and 3.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Darren Withey changes to -0.8% and Chris Lynam changes to +2.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Darren Withey becomes -0.5% and for Chris Lynam becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Darren Withey is -0.3% and for Chris Lynam is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Darren Withey: 76%, Chris Lynam: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Darren Withey: 72%, Chris Lynam: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Darren Withey: 4,233, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Chris Lynam: 2,981, level confidence: 75%.