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Alan Tierney v Paul Starkey (Wed 11 Jun 2014)

Match won by Paul Starkey. Result: 11-15,8-15,16-14,15-10,11-15.

Starting level for Alan Tierney: 1,468, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Paul Starkey: 1,441, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Alan Tierney to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Paul Starkey.

Paul Starkey won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Starkey played 11% better than Alan Tierney in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Starkey actually played at a level of 1,531 and Alan Tierney at a level of 1,382. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.2% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Starkey changes to +5.5% and Alan Tierney changes to -6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Starkey becomes +3.7% and for Alan Tierney becomes -3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Paul Starkey is +2.4% and for Alan Tierney is -2.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Starkey: 85%, Alan Tierney: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Starkey: 80%, Alan Tierney: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Tierney: 1,436, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Paul Starkey: 1,473, level confidence: 80%.