Gareth Russell v Adam Long (Wed 11 Jun 2014)
Match won by Gareth Russell. Result: 15-11,15-13,6-15,15-8.
Starting level for
Gareth Russell:
2,221, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Adam Long:
2,458, level confidence: 58%.
Adam Long to win as he is currently playing
11% better than Gareth Russell.
Gareth Russell won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gareth Russell played
20% better than Adam Long in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Gareth Russell actually played at a level of
2,555 and Adam Long at a level of
2,137. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gareth Russell changes to +10% and Adam Long changes to -14%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gareth Russell becomes +4.7% and for Adam Long becomes -6.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Gareth Russell is +3.1% and for Adam Long is -3.9%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gareth Russell: 91%, Adam Long: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gareth Russell: 79%, Adam Long: 66%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Gareth Russell:
2,286, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Adam Long:
2,363, level confidence: 66%.