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Andrew Hunter v Keeley Peacock (Wed 11 Jun 2014)

Match won by Andrew Hunter. Result: 15-13,15-7,15-11.

Starting level for Andrew Hunter: 1,803, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Keeley Peacock: 1,653, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Andrew Hunter to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Keeley Peacock.

Andrew Hunter won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Hunter played 48% better than Keeley Peacock in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andrew Hunter actually played at a level of 2,103 and Keeley Peacock at a level of 1,417. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Hunter changes to +14% and Keeley Peacock changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Hunter becomes +6.6% and for Keeley Peacock becomes -7.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Andrew Hunter is +4.3% and for Keeley Peacock is -4.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Hunter: 90%, Keeley Peacock: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Hunter: 77%, Keeley Peacock: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andrew Hunter: 1,877, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Keeley Peacock: 1,575, level confidence: 72%.