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Mike Symmons v Ian Collin (Thu 10 Feb 2011)

Match won by Mike Symmons. Result: 15-12,4-15,15-13,9-15,15-6.

Starting level for Mike Symmons: 1,451, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ian Collin: 2,146, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Ian Collin to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Mike Symmons.

Mike Symmons won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike Symmons played 6% better than Ian Collin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike Symmons actually played at a level of 1,819 and Ian Collin at a level of 1,712. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 20% and 20% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike Symmons changes to +20% and Ian Collin changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike Symmons becomes +9.4% and for Ian Collin becomes -8.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Mike Symmons is +7.1% and for Ian Collin is -6.2%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ian Collin is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike Symmons: 87%, Ian Collin: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike Symmons: 70%, Ian Collin: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike Symmons: 1,552, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Ian Collin: 2,041, level confidence: 69%.