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Keith Warman v Michael Herd (Thu 10 Feb 2011)

Match won by Michael Herd. Result: 10-15,9-15,13-15.

Starting level for Keith Warman: 1,409, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Michael Herd: 1,410, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Michael Herd to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Keith Warman.

Michael Herd won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Herd played 45% better than Keith Warman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael Herd actually played at a level of 1,699 and Keith Warman at a level of 1,169. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Herd changes to +18% and Keith Warman changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Herd becomes +9% and for Keith Warman becomes -9.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Michael Herd is +6.7% and for Keith Warman is -7.3%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Keith Warman is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Herd: 86%, Keith Warman: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Herd: 71%, Keith Warman: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keith Warman: 1,340, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Michael Herd: 1,503, level confidence: 71%.