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Dan Easton v Nick Lomax (Thu 12 Jun 2014)

Match won by Nick Lomax. Result: 6-11,11-9,9-11,5-11.

Starting level for Dan Easton: 1,946, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nick Lomax: 3,065, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Nick Lomax to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Dan Easton.

Nick Lomax won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Lomax played 28% better than Dan Easton in this match.

As Nick Lomax has played below his allowed range at 2,579, his level reduction is 3.1% before damping. On the assumption that Nick Lomax would normally have been playing at level 2,885 (based on typical behaviour), Dan Easton played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.5% and 5.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Lomax changes to -2.5% and Dan Easton changes to +5.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Lomax becomes -1.7% and for Dan Easton becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Nick Lomax is -1.1% and for Dan Easton is +2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Lomax: 91%, Dan Easton: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Lomax: 82%, Dan Easton: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dan Easton: 1,986, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Nick Lomax: 3,028, level confidence: 82%.