Fiona McClure v Jane Poynter (Mon 14 Feb 2011)
Match won by Fiona McClure. Result: 15-13,15-12,15-10.
Starting level for
Fiona McClure:
239, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Jane Poynter:
202, level confidence: 57%.
Fiona McClure to win as she is currently playing
18% better than Jane Poynter.
Fiona McClure won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fiona McClure played
37% better than Jane Poynter in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Fiona McClure actually played at a level of
257 and Jane Poynter at a level of
188. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.7% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fiona McClure changes to +5% and Jane Poynter changes to -7.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fiona McClure becomes +4% and for Jane Poynter becomes -5.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Fiona McClure is +3% and for Jane Poynter is -3.8%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fiona McClure: 90%, Jane Poynter: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fiona McClure: 84%, Jane Poynter: 70%.
A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Fiona McClure:
246, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Jane Poynter:
194, level confidence: 70%.