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Andrew Clark v Dennis Arthur (Tue 15 Feb 2011)

Match won by Andrew Clark. Result: 15-10,15-7,12-15,8-15,15-10.

Starting level for Andrew Clark: 2,050, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dennis Arthur: 1,823, level confidence: 70%.
Andrew Clark to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Dennis Arthur.

Andrew Clark won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Clark played 11% better than Dennis Arthur in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andrew Clark actually played at a level of 2,037 and Dennis Arthur at a level of 1,835. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Clark changes to -0.6% and Dennis Arthur changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Clark becomes -0.4% and for Dennis Arthur becomes +0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Andrew Clark is -0.3% and for Dennis Arthur is +0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Clark: 87%, Dennis Arthur: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Clark: 86%, Dennis Arthur: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andrew Clark: 2,040, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Dennis Arthur: 1,827, level confidence: 83%.