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Paul Starkey v Jan Brynjolffssen (Wed 18 Jun 2014)

Match won by Paul Starkey. Result: 15-13,16-18,9-15,15-13,15-9.

Starting level for Paul Starkey: 1,474, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jan Brynjolffssen: 1,493, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Jan Brynjolffssen to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Paul Starkey.

Paul Starkey won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Starkey played 8% better than Jan Brynjolffssen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Starkey actually played at a level of 1,543 and Jan Brynjolffssen at a level of 1,426. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Starkey changes to +4.4% and Jan Brynjolffssen changes to -4.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Starkey becomes +3.2% and for Jan Brynjolffssen becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Paul Starkey is +2.1% and for Jan Brynjolffssen is -2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Starkey: 88%, Jan Brynjolffssen: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Starkey: 84%, Jan Brynjolffssen: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Starkey: 1,502, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Jan Brynjolffssen: 1,461, level confidence: 81%.