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Michael Broadbent v Vinh Tram (Tue 15 Feb 2011)

Match won by Michael Broadbent. Result: 15-10,15-8,15-13.

Starting level for Michael Broadbent: 1,452, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Vinh Tram: 1,124, level confidence: 69%.
Michael Broadbent to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Vinh Tram.

Michael Broadbent won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Michael Broadbent played 48% better than Vinh Tram in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Michael Broadbent actually played at a level of 1,556 and Vinh Tram at a level of 1,049. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.3% and 6.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Michael Broadbent changes to +6.3% and Vinh Tram changes to -6.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Michael Broadbent becomes +4% and for Vinh Tram becomes -4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Michael Broadbent is +3% and for Vinh Tram is -3.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Michael Broadbent: 82%, Vinh Tram: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Michael Broadbent: 77%, Vinh Tram: 78%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Michael Broadbent: 1,493, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Vinh Tram: 1,087, level confidence: 78%.