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Simon Taylor v Carl Noffki (Tue 15 Feb 2011)

Match won by Simon Taylor. Result: 11-15,15-8,15-5,10-15,15-8.

Starting level for Simon Taylor: 1,080, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Carl Noffki: 959, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Simon Taylor to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Carl Noffki.

Simon Taylor won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Taylor played 15% better than Carl Noffki in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Taylor actually played at a level of 1,091 and Carl Noffki at a level of 950. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Taylor changes to +0.9% and Carl Noffki changes to -0.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Taylor becomes +0.9% and for Carl Noffki becomes -0.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Simon Taylor is +0.6% and for Carl Noffki is -0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Taylor: 89%, Carl Noffki: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Taylor: 88%, Carl Noffki: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Simon Taylor: 1,085, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Carl Noffki: 951, level confidence: 86%.