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Richard Trugber v Ian Lennox (Tue 15 Feb 2011)

Match won by Richard Trugber. Result: 15-13,15-2,15-6.

Starting level for Richard Trugber: 995, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Ian Lennox: 998, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Ian Lennox to win as he is currently playing 0% better than Richard Trugber.

Richard Trugber won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richard Trugber played 114% better than Ian Lennox in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richard Trugber actually played at a level of 1,459 and Ian Lennox at a level of 681. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 47% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richard Trugber changes to +47% and Ian Lennox changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richard Trugber becomes +22.8% and for Ian Lennox becomes -14%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Richard Trugber is +17% and for Ian Lennox is -9.9%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Richard Trugber is limited to +10% and Ian Lennox is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richard Trugber: 73%, Ian Lennox: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richard Trugber: 50%, Ian Lennox: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richard Trugber: 1,093, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Ian Lennox: 949, level confidence: 62%.