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Andrew Hunter v Chris Ginn (Wed 25 Jun 2014)

Match won by Andrew Hunter. Result: 15-13,13-15,15-12,15-12.

Starting level for Andrew Hunter: 1,877, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Ginn: 1,730, level confidence: 52%.
Andrew Hunter to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Chris Ginn.

Andrew Hunter won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andrew Hunter played 21% better than Chris Ginn in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Andrew Hunter actually played at a level of 1,979 and Chris Ginn at a level of 1,641. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andrew Hunter changes to +3.7% and Chris Ginn changes to -5.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andrew Hunter becomes +2.6% and for Chris Ginn becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Andrew Hunter is +1.7% and for Chris Ginn is -2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andrew Hunter: 85%, Chris Ginn: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andrew Hunter: 81%, Chris Ginn: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andrew Hunter: 1,906, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Chris Ginn: 1,691, level confidence: 68%.