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Roger Woodfield v Ingo Kelling (Thu 17 Feb 2011)

Match won by Ingo Kelling. Result: 12-15,11-15,15-13,13-15.

Starting level for Roger Woodfield: 906, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Ingo Kelling: 1,210, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Ingo Kelling to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Roger Woodfield.

Ingo Kelling won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ingo Kelling played 21% better than Roger Woodfield in this match.

As Ingo Kelling has played below his allowed range at 1,118, his level reduction is 1.8% before damping. On the assumption that Ingo Kelling would normally have been playing at level 1,178 (based on typical behaviour), Roger Woodfield played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.5% and 3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ingo Kelling changes to -1.2% and Roger Woodfield changes to +3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ingo Kelling becomes -1.1% and for Roger Woodfield becomes +3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Ingo Kelling is -0.8% and for Roger Woodfield is +2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ingo Kelling: 91%, Roger Woodfield: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ingo Kelling: 86%, Roger Woodfield: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Roger Woodfield: 925, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Ingo Kelling: 1,198, level confidence: 86%.