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Julian Craxton v Dave Walden (Tue 01 Jul 2014)

Match won by Julian Craxton. Result: 18-16,15-7,8-15,18-20,15-10.

Starting level for Julian Craxton: 1,760, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dave Walden: 1,424, level confidence: 56%.
Julian Craxton to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Dave Walden.

Julian Craxton won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Julian Craxton played 10% better than Dave Walden in this match.

As Julian Craxton has played below his allowed range at 1,630, his level reduction is 4.3% before damping. On the assumption that Julian Craxton would normally have been playing at level 1,734 (based on typical behaviour), Dave Walden played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.9% and 4.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Julian Craxton changes to -2.8% and Dave Walden changes to +4.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Julian Craxton becomes -2.2% and for Dave Walden becomes +3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Julian Craxton is -1.4% and for Dave Walden is +2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Julian Craxton: 88%, Dave Walden: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Julian Craxton: 82%, Dave Walden: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Julian Craxton: 1,732, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Dave Walden: 1,453, level confidence: 70%.