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Matt Bevan v Daniel Wolfson (Wed 02 Jul 2014)

Match won by Matt Bevan. Result: 15-12,12-15,21-19,15-13.

Starting level for Matt Bevan: 1,760, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Daniel Wolfson: 1,913, level confidence: 62%.
Daniel Wolfson to win as he is currently playing 9% better than Matt Bevan.

Matt Bevan won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Matt Bevan played 19% better than Daniel Wolfson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Matt Bevan actually played at a level of 2,002 and Daniel Wolfson at a level of 1,682. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Matt Bevan changes to +10.5% and Daniel Wolfson changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Matt Bevan becomes +5.3% and for Daniel Wolfson becomes -6.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Matt Bevan is +3.5% and for Daniel Wolfson is -3.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Matt Bevan: 88%, Daniel Wolfson: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Matt Bevan: 78%, Daniel Wolfson: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt Bevan: 1,818, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Daniel Wolfson: 1,838, level confidence: 69%.