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Matt McGill v Darren Matussa (Thu 17 Feb 2011)

Match won by Darren Matussa. Result: 6-15,5-15,5-15.

Starting level for Matt McGill: 1,427, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Darren Matussa: 1,245, level confidence: 67%.
Matt McGill to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Darren Matussa.

Darren Matussa won all of the games and 74% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 181% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Darren Matussa played 181% better than Matt McGill in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Darren Matussa actually played at a level of 2,235 and Matt McGill at a level of 795. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 80% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Darren Matussa changes to +70% and Matt McGill changes to -73%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Darren Matussa becomes +29% and for Matt McGill becomes -28%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Darren Matussa is +22% and for Matt McGill is -20%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Darren Matussa is limited to +10% and Matt McGill is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Darren Matussa: 82%, Matt McGill: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Darren Matussa: 45%, Matt McGill: 44%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt McGill: 1,357, level confidence: 44%.
Final level for Darren Matussa: 1,367, level confidence: 45%.