John Chesters v John Murphy (Thu 17 Feb 2011)
Match won by John Murphy. Result: 8-15,11-15,14-16.
Starting level for
John Chesters:
1,198, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
John Murphy:
1,414, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
John Murphy to win as he is currently playing
18% better than John Chesters.
John Murphy won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that John Murphy played
45% better than John Chesters in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like John Murphy actually played at a level of
1,565 and John Chesters at a level of
1,083. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.7% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for John Murphy changes to +9.3% and John Chesters changes to -9.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for John Murphy becomes +5.3% and for John Chesters becomes -5.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for John Murphy is +4% and for John Chesters is -4.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. John Murphy: 85%, John Chesters: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. John Murphy: 76%, John Chesters: 75%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for John Chesters:
1,146, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for John Murphy:
1,468, level confidence: 76%.