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Mark Slaney v Phil Littlefair (Tue 01 Mar 2011)

Match won by Phil Littlefair. Result: 15-8,8-15,10-15,5-15.

Starting level for Mark Slaney: 1,087, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Phil Littlefair: 1,567, level confidence: 69%.
Phil Littlefair to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Mark Slaney.

Phil Littlefair won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Littlefair played 30% better than Mark Slaney in this match.

As Phil Littlefair has played below his allowed range at 1,419, his level reduction is 0.6% before damping. On the assumption that Phil Littlefair would normally have been playing at level 1,504 (based on typical behaviour), Mark Slaney played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 2.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Littlefair changes to -0.4% and Mark Slaney changes to +2.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Phil Littlefair becomes -0.3% and for Mark Slaney becomes +2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Phil Littlefair is 0% and for Mark Slaney is +1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Littlefair: 83%, Mark Slaney: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Littlefair: 79%, Mark Slaney: 71%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mark Slaney: 1,107, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Phil Littlefair: 1,561, level confidence: 79%.