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Dave McMahon v Phil Power (Wed 09 Jul 2014)

Match won by Dave McMahon. Result: 15-6,15-8,15-12.

Starting level for Dave McMahon: 1,797, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Phil Power: 1,854, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Phil Power to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Dave McMahon.

Dave McMahon won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 73% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave McMahon played 73% better than Phil Power in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave McMahon actually played at a level of 2,401 and Phil Power at a level of 1,387. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 34% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave McMahon changes to +33% and Phil Power changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave McMahon becomes +13.4% and for Phil Power becomes -11%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Dave McMahon is +8.7% and for Phil Power is -7.1%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Phil Power is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave McMahon: 81%, Phil Power: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave McMahon: 60%, Phil Power: 65%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dave McMahon: 1,950, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Phil Power: 1,763, level confidence: 65%.