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Jeff Hobden v Chris Bhatt (Tue 01 Mar 2011)

Match won by Jeff Hobden. Result: 15-9,16-14,11-15,11-15,15-12.

Starting level for Jeff Hobden: 1,924, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Chris Bhatt: 1,601, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Jeff Hobden to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Chris Bhatt.

Jeff Hobden won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jeff Hobden played 9% better than Chris Bhatt in this match.

As Jeff Hobden has played below his allowed range at 1,808, his level reduction is 3.9% before damping. On the assumption that Jeff Hobden would normally have been playing at level 1,904 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Bhatt played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.6%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jeff Hobden changes to -3.6% and Chris Bhatt changes to +3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jeff Hobden becomes -2.6% and for Chris Bhatt becomes +2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Jeff Hobden is -1.9% and for Chris Bhatt is +2.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jeff Hobden: 78%, Chris Bhatt: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jeff Hobden: 74%, Chris Bhatt: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jeff Hobden: 1,885, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Chris Bhatt: 1,631, level confidence: 80%.