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Tom Brady v Simon Farman (Tue 01 Mar 2011)

Match won by Tom Brady. Result: 15-8,15-11,15-10.

Starting level for Tom Brady: 1,057, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Simon Farman: 885, level confidence: 63%.
Tom Brady to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Simon Farman.

Tom Brady won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Brady played 55% better than Simon Farman in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Brady actually played at a level of 1,205 and Simon Farman at a level of 777. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Brady changes to +10.2% and Simon Farman changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Brady becomes +6.4% and for Simon Farman becomes -7.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Tom Brady is +4.8% and for Simon Farman is -5.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Brady: 89%, Simon Farman: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Brady: 78%, Simon Farman: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Brady: 1,106, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Simon Farman: 836, level confidence: 70%.