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James Barron v Dave Bowgen (Tue 15 Jul 2014)

Match won by James Barron. Result: 15-5,15-4,15-12.

Starting level for James Barron: 980, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Dave Bowgen: 514, level confidence: 66%.
James Barron to win as he is currently playing 91% better than Dave Bowgen.

James Barron won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 114% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Barron played 114% better than Dave Bowgen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like James Barron actually played at a level of 1,039 and Dave Bowgen at a level of 485. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.3% and 4.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Barron changes to +3.4% and Dave Bowgen changes to -4.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Barron becomes +3.2% and for Dave Bowgen becomes -3.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for James Barron is +2.1% and for Dave Bowgen is -2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Barron: 92%, Dave Bowgen: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Barron: 86%, Dave Bowgen: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for James Barron: 999, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Dave Bowgen: 501, level confidence: 77%.