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Dave Baldwin v Geoff Savage (Tue 01 Mar 2011)

Match won by Dave Baldwin. Result: 15-12,15-12,7-15,15-9.

Starting level for Dave Baldwin: 1,046, level confidence: 10%.
Starting level for Geoff Savage: 919, level confidence: 35%.
Dave Baldwin to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Geoff Savage.

Dave Baldwin won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Baldwin played 20% better than Geoff Savage in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave Baldwin actually played at a level of 1,072 and Geoff Savage at a level of 897. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Baldwin changes to +2.3% and Geoff Savage changes to -0.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Baldwin becomes +2.3% and for Geoff Savage becomes -0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Dave Baldwin is +1.7% and for Geoff Savage is -0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Baldwin: 32%, Geoff Savage: 59%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Baldwin: 31%, Geoff Savage: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dave Baldwin: 1,062, level confidence: 31%.
Final level for Geoff Savage: 913, level confidence: 58%.