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Martin White v Akin Olunloyo (Wed 02 Mar 2011)

Match won by Martin White. Result: 14-16,15-8,15-9,15-9.

Starting level for Martin White: 2,283, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Akin Olunloyo: 1,216, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Martin White to win as he is currently playing 88% better than Akin Olunloyo.

Martin White won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Martin White played 30% better than Akin Olunloyo in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Martin White was taking it easy by anything up to 10%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 1,785 and 2,283 without affecting his level.

As Martin White has played below his allowed range at 1,681, his level reduction is 6.2% before damping. On the assumption that Martin White would normally have been playing at level 2,047 (based on typical behaviour), Akin Olunloyo played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 9.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Martin White changes to -4.5% and Akin Olunloyo changes to +7.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Martin White becomes -2.8% and for Akin Olunloyo becomes +4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Martin White is -2.1% and for Akin Olunloyo is +3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Martin White: 78%, Akin Olunloyo: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Martin White: 65%, Akin Olunloyo: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Martin White: 2,233, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Akin Olunloyo: 1,257, level confidence: 76%.