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Daniel Wolfson v David Gandolfo (Wed 23 Jul 2014)

Match won by Daniel Wolfson. Result: 15-12,4-15,15-12,16-14.

Starting level for Daniel Wolfson: 1,866, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Gandolfo: 2,322, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
David Gandolfo to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Daniel Wolfson.

Daniel Wolfson won 75% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Wolfson played 15% better than David Gandolfo in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daniel Wolfson actually played at a level of 2,231 and David Gandolfo at a level of 1,942. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Wolfson changes to +17% and David Gandolfo changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Wolfson becomes +7.5% and for David Gandolfo becomes -7.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Daniel Wolfson is +4.9% and for David Gandolfo is -4.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Wolfson: 86%, David Gandolfo: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Wolfson: 72%, David Gandolfo: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daniel Wolfson: 1,954, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for David Gandolfo: 2,217, level confidence: 70%.