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Isaac Freckleton v Gary Slater (Tue 29 Jul 2014)

Match won by Isaac Freckleton. Result: 15-9,15-9,8-15,14-16,15-11.

Starting level for Isaac Freckleton: 759, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Gary Slater: 798, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Gary Slater to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Isaac Freckleton.

Isaac Freckleton won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Isaac Freckleton played 10% better than Gary Slater in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Isaac Freckleton actually played at a level of 818 and Gary Slater at a level of 741. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Isaac Freckleton changes to +7.5% and Gary Slater changes to -6.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Isaac Freckleton becomes +5.2% and for Gary Slater becomes -4.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Isaac Freckleton is +3.4% and for Gary Slater is -3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Isaac Freckleton: 83%, Gary Slater: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Isaac Freckleton: 77%, Gary Slater: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Isaac Freckleton: 784, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Gary Slater: 774, level confidence: 84%.