SquashLevels calculations
Phil Power v Alan Tierney (Wed 30 Jul 2014)
Match won by Phil Power. Result: 15-11,15-9,12-15,16-14.
Starting level for
Phil Power:
1,852, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Alan Tierney:
1,509, level confidence: 63%.
Phil Power to win as he is currently playing
23% better than Alan Tierney.
Phil Power won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Phil Power played
23% better than Alan Tierney in this match.
There is no adjustment needed for this match. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Phil Power changes to 0% and Alan Tierney changes to 0%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Phil Power: 88%, Alan Tierney: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Phil Power: 88%, Alan Tierney: 79%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Phil Power:
1,849, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Alan Tierney:
1,506, level confidence: 79%.