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Jeff Hobden v Tom Bensley (Wed 30 Jul 2014)

Match won by Tom Bensley. Result: 12-15,12-15,14-16.

Starting level for Jeff Hobden: 2,297, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom Bensley: 1,723, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Jeff Hobden to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Tom Bensley.

Tom Bensley won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Bensley played 32% better than Jeff Hobden in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Bensley actually played at a level of 2,288 and Jeff Hobden at a level of 1,730. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Bensley changes to +26% and Jeff Hobden changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Bensley becomes +11% and for Jeff Hobden becomes -10.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Hertfordshire Summer League 2014' so the adjustment for Tom Bensley is +7.2% and for Jeff Hobden is -6.7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jeff Hobden is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Bensley: 89%, Jeff Hobden: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Bensley: 67%, Jeff Hobden: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jeff Hobden: 2,184, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Tom Bensley: 1,844, level confidence: 67%.