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Dave Downman v Oliver Jones (Thu 27 Aug 2015)

Match won by Dave Downman. Result: 9-7,9-2,9-3.

Starting level for Dave Downman: 2,513, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Oliver Jones: 1,868, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Dave Downman to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Oliver Jones.

Dave Downman won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 51% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Dave Downman played 52% better than Oliver Jones in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Dave Downman actually played at a level of 2,674 and Oliver Jones at a level of 1,756. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.5% and 5.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Dave Downman changes to +5% and Oliver Jones changes to -5.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Dave Downman becomes +2.8% and for Oliver Jones becomes -3.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2015' so the adjustment for Dave Downman is +1.8% and for Oliver Jones is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Dave Downman: 90%, Oliver Jones: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Dave Downman: 85%, Oliver Jones: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dave Downman: 2,566, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Oliver Jones: 1,833, level confidence: 81%.