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Hugh Mannerings v Stuart Henderson (Tue 01 Sep 2015)

Match won by Hugh Mannerings. Result: 2-9,9-3,9-6,9-2.

Starting level for Hugh Mannerings: 1,258, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Stuart Henderson: 1,266, level confidence: 63%.
Stuart Henderson to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Hugh Mannerings.

Hugh Mannerings won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hugh Mannerings played 24% better than Stuart Henderson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hugh Mannerings actually played at a level of 1,403 and Stuart Henderson at a level of 1,135. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hugh Mannerings changes to +8.8% and Stuart Henderson changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hugh Mannerings becomes +5.3% and for Stuart Henderson becomes -6.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2015' so the adjustment for Hugh Mannerings is +3.4% and for Stuart Henderson is -4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hugh Mannerings: 91%, Stuart Henderson: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hugh Mannerings: 81%, Stuart Henderson: 71%.

A final adjustment of +1.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hugh Mannerings: 1,305, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Stuart Henderson: 1,244, level confidence: 71%.