Ryan Stride v Josh Gregory (Tue 01 Sep 2015)
Match won by Josh Gregory. Result: 7-9,9-7,2-9,8-10.
Starting level for
Ryan Stride:
1,047, level confidence: 41%.
Starting level for
Josh Gregory:
904, level confidence: 62%.
Ryan Stride to win as he is currently playing
16% better than Josh Gregory.
Josh Gregory won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Josh Gregory played
22% better than Ryan Stride in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Josh Gregory actually played at a level of
1,075 and Ryan Stride at a level of
881. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Josh Gregory changes to +12% and Ryan Stride changes to -17%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Josh Gregory becomes +7.2% and for Ryan Stride becomes -9.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Surrey Summer League 2015' so the adjustment for Josh Gregory is +4.7% and for Ryan Stride is -6.2%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Josh Gregory: 79%, Ryan Stride: 64%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Josh Gregory: 66%, Ryan Stride: 54%.
A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ryan Stride:
989, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Josh Gregory:
949, level confidence: 66%.