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Lewis Ryall v Dean Newberry (Tue 01 Sep 2015)

Match won by Lewis Ryall. Result: 11-3,11-4,11-3.

Starting level for Lewis Ryall: 6,356, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Dean Newberry: 4,531, level confidence: 69%.
Lewis Ryall to win as he is currently playing 40% better than Dean Newberry.

Lewis Ryall won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Ryall played 230% better than Dean Newberry in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewis Ryall actually played at a level of 9,749 and Dean Newberry at a level of 2,954. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 53% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 43% and 43% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Ryall changes to +43% and Dean Newberry changes to -39%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Ryall becomes +11.4% and for Dean Newberry becomes -11%.

Given Lewis Ryall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.3% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Kent NW Mens Summer League 2015' so the adjustment for Lewis Ryall is +6.7% and for Dean Newberry is -7.1%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Dean Newberry is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Ryall: 80%, Dean Newberry: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Ryall: 52%, Dean Newberry: 54%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Ryall: 6,775, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Dean Newberry: 4,309, level confidence: 54%.