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Fraser Wilkins v Daniel Sweeney (Tue 01 Sep 2015)

Match won by Daniel Sweeney. Result: 5-9,5-9,7-9.

Starting level for Fraser Wilkins: 1,194, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Daniel Sweeney: 1,551, level confidence: 68%.
Daniel Sweeney to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Fraser Wilkins.

Daniel Sweeney won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daniel Sweeney played 36% better than Fraser Wilkins in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daniel Sweeney actually played at a level of 1,584 and Fraser Wilkins at a level of 1,169. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 1.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daniel Sweeney changes to +1.9% and Fraser Wilkins changes to -1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daniel Sweeney becomes +1.6% and for Fraser Wilkins becomes -1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Kent NW Mens Summer League 2015' so the adjustment for Daniel Sweeney is +1% and for Fraser Wilkins is -1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daniel Sweeney: 83%, Fraser Wilkins: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daniel Sweeney: 81%, Fraser Wilkins: 88%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Fraser Wilkins: 1,181, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Daniel Sweeney: 1,565, level confidence: 81%.