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Darren Heathfield v Tom Stone (Tue 01 Sep 2015)

Match won by Tom Stone. Result: 1-9,3-9,2-9.

Starting level for Darren Heathfield: 3,024, level confidence: 40%.
Starting level for Tom Stone: 4,158, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Tom Stone to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Darren Heathfield.

Tom Stone won all of the games and 82% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 117% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Stone played 117% better than Darren Heathfield in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Stone actually played at a level of 5,224 and Darren Heathfield at a level of 2,407. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 26% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Stone changes to +10.3% and Darren Heathfield changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Stone becomes +4% and for Darren Heathfield becomes -7.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Kent NW Mens Summer League 2015' so the adjustment for Tom Stone is +2.6% and for Darren Heathfield is -5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Stone: 92%, Darren Heathfield: 63%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Stone: 73%, Darren Heathfield: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Darren Heathfield: 2,876, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Tom Stone: 4,260, level confidence: 73%.