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Andy Maclean v Ian McMeckan (Tue 01 Sep 2015)

Match won by Ian McMeckan. Result: 9-4,7-9,1-9,2-9.

Starting level for Andy Maclean: 1,783, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ian McMeckan: 2,141, level confidence: 68%.
Ian McMeckan to win as he is currently playing 20% better than Andy Maclean.

Ian McMeckan won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ian McMeckan played 26% better than Andy Maclean in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ian McMeckan actually played at a level of 2,196 and Andy Maclean at a level of 1,738. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ian McMeckan changes to +2.3% and Andy Maclean changes to -1.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ian McMeckan becomes +1.8% and for Andy Maclean becomes -1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Kent NW Mens Summer League 2015' so the adjustment for Ian McMeckan is +1.1% and for Andy Maclean is -1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ian McMeckan: 82%, Andy Maclean: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ian McMeckan: 80%, Andy Maclean: 90%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Andy Maclean: 1,763, level confidence: 90%.
Final level for Ian McMeckan: 2,162, level confidence: 80%.