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Ashley Tomlyn v Calum Wildey (Tue 01 Sep 2015)

Match won by Calum Wildey. Result: 4-9,9-10,8-9.

Starting level for Ashley Tomlyn: 2,501, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Calum Wildey: 3,571, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Calum Wildey to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Ashley Tomlyn.

Calum Wildey won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Calum Wildey played 29% better than Ashley Tomlyn in this match.

As Calum Wildey has played below his allowed range at 3,239, his level reduction is 0.5% before damping. On the assumption that Calum Wildey would normally have been playing at level 3,433 (based on typical behaviour), Ashley Tomlyn played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 2.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Calum Wildey changes to -0.4% and Ashley Tomlyn changes to +2.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Calum Wildey becomes -0.3% and for Ashley Tomlyn becomes +1.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Kent NW Mens Summer League 2015' so the adjustment for Calum Wildey is 0% and for Ashley Tomlyn is +1.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Calum Wildey: 84%, Ashley Tomlyn: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Calum Wildey: 80%, Ashley Tomlyn: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ashley Tomlyn: 2,528, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Calum Wildey: 3,559, level confidence: 80%.