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Alan Saxer v Scott Shergold (Tue 01 Sep 2015)

Match won by Scott Shergold. Result: 0-9,1-9,3-9.

Starting level for Alan Saxer: 1,276, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Scott Shergold: 3,186, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Scott Shergold to win as he is currently playing 150% better than Alan Saxer.

Scott Shergold won all of the games and 87% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 165% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Scott Shergold played 165% better than Alan Saxer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Scott Shergold actually played at a level of 3,282 and Alan Saxer at a level of 1,239. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.9% and 1.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Scott Shergold changes to +1.5% and Alan Saxer changes to -1.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Scott Shergold becomes +1% and for Alan Saxer becomes -1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Kent NW Mens Summer League 2015' so the adjustment for Scott Shergold is +0.7% and for Alan Saxer is -1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Scott Shergold: 92%, Alan Saxer: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Scott Shergold: 90%, Alan Saxer: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Saxer: 1,260, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Scott Shergold: 3,202, level confidence: 90%.