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Peter Young v Luke Grindle (Tue 01 Sep 2015)

Match won by Luke Grindle. Result: 9-7,7-9,0-9,2-9.

Starting level for Peter Young: 737, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Luke Grindle: 473, level confidence: 10%.
Peter Young to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Luke Grindle.

Luke Grindle won 75% of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Luke Grindle played 29% better than Peter Young in this match. An upset!

Luke Grindle has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his pre-match level has been increased to 556. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Luke Grindle actually played at a level of 728 and Peter Young at a level of 563. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Luke Grindle changes to +26% and Peter Young changes to -2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Luke Grindle becomes +14.1% and for Peter Young becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 65% for 'Kent NW Mens Summer League 2015' so the adjustment for Luke Grindle is +9.2% and for Peter Young is -1.7%.

Including the accelerated level adjustment, the total adjustment for Luke Grindle is +28%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Luke Grindle: 32%, Peter Young: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Luke Grindle: 22%, Peter Young: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Young: 724, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Luke Grindle: 607, level confidence: 22%.