Nick Cartwright v Simba Mugomba (Tue 15 Mar 2011)
Match won by Nick Cartwright. Result: 9-15,16-14,16-14,15-9.
Starting level for
Nick Cartwright:
1,642, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Simba Mugomba:
1,368, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Nick Cartwright to win as he is currently playing
20% better than Simba Mugomba.
Nick Cartwright won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 8% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Cartwright played
19% better than Simba Mugomba in this match.
In this case, Nick Cartwright played at level 1,632 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Simba Mugomba is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Cartwright: 88%, Simba Mugomba: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Cartwright: 88%, Simba Mugomba: 84%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nick Cartwright:
1,640, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Simba Mugomba:
1,366, level confidence: 84%.