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Miles Wood v Paul Scott-Stevens (Tue 15 Mar 2011)

Match won by Paul Scott-Stevens. Result: 10-15,10-15,4-15.

Starting level for Miles Wood: 1,320, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Scott-Stevens: 1,816, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Paul Scott-Stevens to win as he is currently playing 38% better than Miles Wood.

Paul Scott-Stevens won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 88% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Scott-Stevens played 88% better than Miles Wood in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Paul Scott-Stevens actually played at a level of 2,120 and Miles Wood at a level of 1,131. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Scott-Stevens changes to +13% and Miles Wood changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Scott-Stevens becomes +6.4% and for Miles Wood becomes -7.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Paul Scott-Stevens is +4.8% and for Miles Wood is -5.5%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Miles Wood is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Scott-Stevens: 87%, Miles Wood: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Scott-Stevens: 75%, Miles Wood: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miles Wood: 1,255, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Paul Scott-Stevens: 1,900, level confidence: 75%.