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Jack Fowler v Joseph Green (Tue 15 Mar 2011)

Match won by Jack Fowler. Result: 15-10,15-8,15-13.

Starting level for Jack Fowler: 2,791, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Joseph Green: 1,980, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Jack Fowler to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Joseph Green.

Jack Fowler won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 45% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jack Fowler played 48% better than Joseph Green in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jack Fowler actually played at a level of 2,864 and Joseph Green at a level of 1,930. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.2% and 2.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jack Fowler changes to +2.2% and Joseph Green changes to -1.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jack Fowler becomes +1.5% and for Joseph Green becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Jack Fowler is +1.1% and for Joseph Green is -1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jack Fowler: 80%, Joseph Green: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jack Fowler: 78%, Joseph Green: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jack Fowler: 2,818, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Joseph Green: 1,956, level confidence: 85%.