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Dave Relf v Rob Coghlan (Tue 15 Mar 2011)

Match won by Rob Coghlan. Result: 16-18,17-15,12-15,12-15.

Starting level for Dave Relf: 875, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rob Coghlan: 1,075, level confidence: 70%.
Rob Coghlan to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Dave Relf.

Rob Coghlan won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rob Coghlan played 20% better than Dave Relf in this match.

In this case, Rob Coghlan played at level 1,056 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Rob Coghlan would normally have been playing at level 1,060 (based on typical behaviour), Dave Relf played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.4%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rob Coghlan changes to 0% and Dave Relf changes to +0.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rob Coghlan becomes 0% and for Dave Relf becomes +0.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Rob Coghlan is 0% and for Dave Relf is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rob Coghlan: 83%, Dave Relf: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rob Coghlan: 83%, Dave Relf: 87%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Dave Relf: 876, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Rob Coghlan: 1,073, level confidence: 83%.