SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Karen Robins v Carmel Horgan (Mon 28 Mar 2011)

Match won by Carmel Horgan. Result: 13-15,11-15,12-15.

Starting level for Karen Robins: 168, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Carmel Horgan: 242, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Carmel Horgan to win as she is currently playing 44% better than Karen Robins.

Carmel Horgan won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Carmel Horgan played 35% better than Karen Robins in this match.

In this case, Carmel Horgan played at level 229 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Carmel Horgan would normally have been playing at level 232 (based on typical behaviour), Karen Robins played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Carmel Horgan changes to 0% and Karen Robins changes to +1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Carmel Horgan becomes 0% and for Karen Robins becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2010/2011' so the adjustment for Carmel Horgan is 0% and for Karen Robins is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Carmel Horgan: 87%, Karen Robins: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Carmel Horgan: 84%, Karen Robins: 81%.

Final level for Karen Robins: 169, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Carmel Horgan: 242, level confidence: 84%.